The Discovery Documents confirm that Ceecee’s reaction to true nuts was “getting worse” each time she went to see the allergist. This suggests the younger child had an underlying peanut allergy which aggravated over time to include a tree nut allergy.
It’s unclear whether the ingredients in Shan’ann’s Thrive products could have played a role in this.
In 2002 a medical team on the Isle of Wight found that around one in 70 children across the UK was allergic to peanuts, compared with one in 200 a decade before. (Grundy et al, 2002). A more recent follow-up study by the same group suggests a slight fall in cases (Venter et al 2010). The high rates of peanut allergy were acknowledged in a UK Government report in 2004, which put the figure among children in England at around 250,000 (House of Commons 2004). Similar trends for peanut allergy have been noted in the USA (Sicherer et al, 2010). A 2011 paper shows that tree nut allergy is more common in older age groups than among children (Venter and Arshad 2011).
Foods likely to contain peanuts or tree nuts include the following: Cakes, biscuits, pastries, cereal bars, confectionery, ice cream, desserts, vegetarian products, salads and salad dressings. This list is not exhaustive.
Peanut allergy was once thought to be lifelong in all cases, but studies show that about 20% of young children outgrow it (Hourihane 1998 and Burks 2008). Doctors are unable to tell which children will be the lucky ones, although blood tests taken in the early years of life may provide clues (Ho et al 2008). Some experts believe that if a child has not outgrown their peanut allergy before the age of ten, it is likely that it will persist.
As with peanut allergy, a proportion of people with tree nut allergy will outgrow it. Research suggests that 10% of young children outgrow tree nut allergy (Skripak and Woods 2008).
…about 35% of peanut-allergic toddlers in the U.S. have or will develop a tree nut allergy. Doctors often recommend that young children avoid tree nuts if they are allergic to peanuts. The FDA lists coconut as a tree nut. In fact, coconut is a seed of a drupaceous fruit. Most people allergic to tree nuts can safely eat coconut. Coconut allergy is reasonably rare.
In my first assessment of the Frazee case, I noted the strange circumstances surrounding Thanksgiving. Why would a couple who were engaged not be spending Thanksgiving together? Why was Patrick Frazee coming to pick up his daughter, and not his wife as well? Also, why had no family member come forward to confirm there was an estrangement of the couple, or some fracturing of their relationship, assuming this was the case?
That temporary custody hearing was scheduled for Thursday, December 27th. Just as in the Watts case, this murder took place within sight of a major court appearance, which may have had a countdown effect in precipitating the crime. We don’t know who applied for the hearing, but since Kelsey was killed, it seems to suggest her killer didn’t wish to fight for custody. That’s pure speculation of course.
Irrespective of who applied for the hearing, custody of one-year-old Kaylee was a probable bone of contention, and it probably didn’t help Kelsey that she appeared to be estranged [or not close] with her mother Cheryl at the time of her disappearance. We see the same patterns of not just cracks in the core relationship, but also in the relationships with at least one parent here as we do in the Watts case.
Since Kelsey was a strong Christian, we can also see why there may have been resistance, or even denial, in terms of her accepting her relationship was over, or ending. Possibly she dug in her heels at the prospect of admitting publicly that her engagement was over, and effectively, that Kaylee was about to lose regular contact with her father. On the other hand, Kelsey may have felt strongly about applying for the sole custody to raise her daughter as she saw fit.
Again, if an affair on the sidelines was part of this equation, we can see why a custody battle would be all the more fraught, and also why Kelsey may have felt justified in not giving an inch to fiance.
At the time of writing, the custody of the little girl has been transferred from the Frazee family to the Kelsey’s extended family. Frazee himself is currently represented by a public defender.
Now let’s move on to the “possible” evidence law enforcement have recently cited – somewhat cryptically – to the media.
Those “items of evidence” could be anything from fingerprints to fibers, touch DNA to hairs. They could even foot prints or tyre tracks. But because of the word “processing”, and because it was the Twin Falls police issuing a statement, and finally because that was the location of the cell phone, and the pings, I suspect that the cops are going through Kelsey’s phone, checking on her browser history and checking her emails. That fact and the news of a custody hearing that has come out at the same time as “possible evidence” breakthrough, suggests that the cops have accessed Kelsey’s digital diary and other artefacts [via her phone], rather than someone coming forward. Again, this is purely speculation.
Angry and otherwise emotionally charged online interactions between the couple in the lead-up to the murder may have been found on her computer as well as her phone. Even if records were wiped [from her phone and/or computer], some “residue” of the original data may have been salvageable [as we found in the Watts case, and as happened with the camera metadata in the Jodi Arias case].
It’s difficult to be certain why the cops firmly believe Kelsey is dead. In the Watts case we saw that even though there was almost no evidence of a fight, no physical evidence of blood etc, it was nevertheless clear due to all Shan’ann’s important possessions still being at home, and her missing a doctor’s appointment, that something was likely very wrong. And it was.
Cadaver dogs may have alerted in Kelsey’s home. We know the police believe she died there, and one obvious reason for this is the last time Kelsey was seen alive was also close to the time Patrick Frazee was seen at her home. Small, even microscopic blood traces would clearly raise red flags, and if Frazee’s blood was also found on scene at Kelsey’s home, then even more so.
If Kelsey’s body is buried on Frazee’s ranch, then there may be traces of her, her clothing or packaging at the ranch, in the car and at the crime scene. Watch this space for more details on this case.
Has the media forgotten about the Chris Watts case? Some would like to think so.
It’s hard to believe almost a month ago around 2000 pages of discovery were released [plus 3 terabytes of video footage]. It’s clearly not the case that the media have fully or completely mined that colossal archive, or that they’ve lost interest. Not even close. It’s the nature of the media beast that around this time of the year newsrooms virtually shut down.
I worked in a busy newsroom for two years, and the idea is to maintain a skeleton crew over the festive season. No one wants to be at work, no one wants to chase or file stories, no wants to do anything except the minimum. So the lights of the building are on, but no one is home, and those who are aren’t really there to work, they’re just there to keep the engine purring in idle mode.
Most of the journos take this time to get their R&R, and it makes sense. The festive season tends to be a “slow news cycle” time of the year. One reason for that is it’s also when the activities of almost everyone drops off precipitously.
Almost everyone. Dedicated true crime writers don’t take vacations, especially not with so much information that has yet to be analyzed. And let’s face it, Gotham never sleeps. Crime never goes away, in fact some crimes – like robberies – increase by 30% over Christmas.
In the lead up to Christmas, predictably, the saturation media coverage of the Watts case has dried up completely. For a few days the media was like a stuck record on Watts’ transfer to Dodge Correctional, and then for a few days after that, it was stuck on the monster’s mail – love letters from adoring female fans.
I imagine some folks are very happy about the media falling silent on this case, while for others – I won’t say who – this was “all part of the plan.”
What the media seem too dumb to notice, is the contradiction inherent in their own reporting.
Let me show you what I mean:
December 3rd, 2018 – SECRET TRANSFER:
For about two days, everyone was led to believe that there was good reason behind Watts’ transfer. He wasn’t safe in Colorado. If he was transferred elsewhere, somewhere unknown, he’d have a measure of protection. So that was why he was being transferred…
Exactly two weeks after Watts’ sentencing hearing on the 19th, he was being transferred to a secret location out of state. These are the key words – where Watts was going to be held would remain “undisclosed.” This was amid “security concerns” around his safety, and also – some averred – to protect the safety of his protectors. The special treatment Watts was receiving was – we were told – because he was an unusually high-profile criminal.
Of course the irony at the time, was that if Watts was on death row, he’d be automatically entitled to all these protections anyway. So by not being sentenced to death, Watts was sort of at risk of unofficially being sentenced to death, if you catch my meaning. Instead of a death sentence authorized by Weld County, it might be conducted by anonymous inmates in some far flung hellhole.
The other aspect that was implied by the transfer, was that by moving Watts out of Colorado, he’d suddenly enjoy some sort of anonymity. Do prisons outside of Colorado not have televisions?
December 5th, 2018 – TRANSFER FOR HIS SECURITY:
After just two days of top secret concealment, the surreptitious relocation of America’s most hated husband and father [presumably under a cloak of darkness] came to an end.
On December 5th, Radar Online revealed where Watts was.
So much for anonymity, secrecy, undisclosed locations and protecting him and his prison guards. Even so, the media now maintained Watts was moved for “security” reasons. [Apparently Colorado prisons aren’t secure, or are less secure than other prisons in America].
During this period, I posted two insightful interviews on CrimeRocket.com, both with former prison inmates providing “expert” analysis of the transfer. In one interview the former inmate said Colorado Corrections should feel embarrassed that they can’t provide security.
In another, Watts’ lifespan was being compared to that of another high-profile murderer, and the expert guessed Watts would be murdered first. Both those interviews have since been removed from YouTube.
December 8th – December 12th, 2018 – MORE LEAKS AND CANTEEN RECEIPTS:
Just days after Watts’ secret transfer, Radar Onlineknew the location of the prison that was holding Watts [in Waupun], and four days after that, they provided a sample of Watts’ purchases from the prison canteen. So much for the anonymity, protection and security of America’s most high-profile inmate!
December 19th, 2018 – LOVE LETTERS:
In a final demonstration of just how ridiculous the claims about anonymity, secrecy and protection really were, local and international media next began to cover the love letter angle.
If paramours of the convicted murderer knew how to get hold of the object of their sick obsessions, how hard would it be for a felon, who wanted to settle a score, to find him?
The Future:
Is Watts likely to be murdered in prison? It’s doubtful such a high-profile prisoner will be allowed to come to harm, simply because that will make this ultra-high-profile case even more high-profile.
So has the mission to keep Watts’ prison status a secret been a failure? It has, if anyone believes that was the real reason he was transferred. It wasn’t.
While the media have been in snooze mode over the past few days, I came across a short video blog posted on December 13 by Daniel Bishop. At 1:03 Bishop mentions “everyone wanting to know what happened to Shan’ann Watts’ car.”
https://youtu.be/4dHC3Xzken4
Bishop describes Shan’ann’s vehicle as leased, and given to her by Thrive as part of an “auto bonus.” Remember Thrive? How long has been since Thrive or MLM has entered the media narrative, or any narrative regarding this case? Too long in my view. I suspect Bishop’s contention that the Lexus was a lease is true, and have suspected that for some time, but is there any proof of this?
What the Discovery Documents say about Shan’ann’s Lexus
Lexus appears 69 times in the Discovery Documents, while the word car appears 87 times. And there it is in black and white:
Curiously, the wording isn’t even that Shan’ann had leased the Lexus, but that the “Watts family” had leased it. This suggests that technically it wasn’t “Shan’ann’s car” even in the family sense, especially if Watts was paying for the lease.
Now we don’t know that for sure, but consider what we do know:
The Lexus was usually parked inside the garage while Chris Watts’ truck was invariably outside [the vehicular equivalent of him not sleeping in his own bed, but in the basement].
Watts’ work truck was outside during a hailstorm, one Shan’ann filmed, while “her” vehicle was in the garage. According to Watts, be believed his vehicle had been vandalized or broken into, but left his toolboxes in the back unlocked to “see if anyone was trying to break into the truck” again.
Following a six minute call to Shan’ann, Shan’ann sent Watts an insurance identification card on the Lexus on July 30, the morning following his return from the Great Sand Dunes National Park. It seems Watts used this information to renew the insurance [another expense] effective from August 15 to February 15. It’s unclear whether the car was insured prior to these dates, and who was paying the insurance premium. The fact that Watts appears to have requested insurance information may indicate that they had defaulted on these payments, or that he intended to take them over once Shan’ann was dead.
Watts was not allowed to run errands in his work truck, which was fitted with a GPS and monitored by Anadarko. This means technically, neither Watts nor his wife were actually vehicle owners in their own right. It also meant he would necessarily need to use the Lexus himself, and Shana’nn’s Facebook does show Watts often behind the wheel, while she is in the passenger seat.
According to Bishop, the leasing company took back Shan’ann’s 2016 Lexus, and because it was too old to be leased out any further, they auctioned it off. So, CO 528-ZJV – like Chris Watts – is gone.
Over the past month or so, Chris Watts has been villainised [not without good reason] and Nichol Kessinger villified, particularly on social media. But one entity has come out of this debacle with barely a speck of blame. Let’s deal with Thrive again, briefly, and the “auto bonus” spiel. We’ll so via Shan’ann and other MLMers.
What Shan’ann and other MLMers say about the luxury car bonus
Shan’ann, her mother, Chris Watts and the Watts family go way back when it comes to cars. Shan’ann used to work at Dirty South after all.
So posing next to cars was almost second nature to her, and if you’re a mechanic, what’s wrong with you or your wife, or you and your wife, using a snazzy car to sell shit?
In the above video, Shan’ann and her fellow promoters are at the rooftop pool of a San Diego hotel, when Shan’ann announces Nickole Atkinson has hit her “12K”, and earned her auto bonus. Atkinson appears to shed a tear on camera, that’s how moved she is by her achievement, and the honor of being recognized by her MLM peers.
In the video, dated June 26, Shan’ann adds that Nickole had started working full-time as a Thrive promoter for the past month [presumably June], “working the business”, and that she [Nickole] had quit her job of 14 years to do that. Basically, after working for Thrive full-time for a month, selling vitamin patches and shakes, the company apparently wanted to give Atkinson a car to reward her for her hard work.
The Discovery Documents, however, disagree with Shan’ann’s claim that Nickole had quit her job in May or June 2018.
Here it is:
On August 21, when detective Baumhover contacted Atkinson, she was getting ready to do a night shift as a nursing assistance at Mesa Vista Nursing Home in Boulder, a short drive west of Frederick and Erie.
In the video, Atkinson mentions using her auto bonus to get a Tesla, but it’s clear in the crime scene footage that she’s still driving a white Mazda Dodge GT more than six weeks after the rooftop video was recorded.
We know that Chris Watts had received an auto bonus as well, yet in spite of Shan’ann’s grandstanding on social media in May that she was shopping for a new Lexus for him, on his behalf, he never acted on his auto bonus either.
But Shan’ann was using Chris Watts’ Facebook as an additional “profile”, if you will, to market, promote and sell Thrive products. So his auto bonus, was actually hers.
But that exposes the above spiel as more than a little misleading. If Shan’ann was speaking on Watts’ behalf, telling everyone he was shopping for a new luxury car, when it was actually her auto bonus, her business, and her aspirations [or promotional aspirations], then she was representing an acquisitive ability that wasn’t merely a gross exaggeration, we’re able to see in the discovery dump that it wasn’t true.
Put simply, Shan’ann was advocating spending beyond their means as a way of promoting a product, and using the idea of living beyond one’s means [as a sort of dream-come-true fantasy] as a sales hook. In other words, her sales pitch was essentially to lure others into spending beyond their means as well. Quit your job – like I have – get free stuff, live the glamorous life, and…have no money at the end of it.
In one of the few instances where the Discovery Documents do deal with the Watts finances in some detail, notice the manner in which Watts cagily frames the situation around the Lexus.
It’s “their” car, not Shan’ann’s car, and it’s not a lease, it’s paid for by the company.
This is Watts doing a Thrive spiel to the cops, only, a police interrogation is where pitching fairy tales no longer works.
In reality, the Lexus wasn’t paid for by anyone, it belonged to the leasing company.
Now, it’s probably important to head off the counters to these counters, one of them being that the Watts vehicle was part of a hire-purchase arrangement, and that eventually they would become the owners of the vehicle.
One way to address that, besides through the semantics in the Discovery Documents [the word “lease” isn’t used multiple times accidentally], is to look at former employees and to see what they say about their experience with MLMs. So there’s not a lot of information out there from disgruntled employees, but there is some, like this, posted on Reddit in 2017.Of course, former employees are contractually and legally obligated not to disclose sensitive information, and if they do, they can be – and often are – sued.
But Thrivers don’t pose around fancy cars, and post themselves doing that on Facebook, do they?
According to lazymanandmoney.com, Le-Vel/Thrive aren’t unique in using the luxury car lure as bait. It’s pretty much standard practice when it comes to MLM companies:
The dirty little secret promoters won’t tell you, is that far from the auto bonus being a reward for hard work, the promoters are required to get a lease when they reach a particular milestone. This obligation then infects that person’s social network, as everyone goes gaga about X’s brand new car and the wonderful company X works for. It’s marketing gold, and it mainlines into the greed/envy/ego aspect of a person.
At 5:37 in the clip above, HBO’s John Oliver refers to the “dangling of vast lifestyle improvements”, especially flashy cars, and luxury travel, as being “at the heart of the MLM pitch.”
A cursory glance at Shan’ann’s Facebook profile provides confirmation of this. She uses almost every Live pitch to punt the lifestyle perks – flexi hours, better health, wealth, holidays and overall luxury. [Meanwhile, her credit cards are maxed out, she’s about to lose her house,and tragically in Shan’ann’s case, her life].
An argument can be made that Shan’ann started losing her life before she died. That she was so caught up in something, it swallowed her up, and encouraged the swallowing up and wholesale consumption of others, so that while this was happening, she was blinded to not one, by many obvious realities.
The Lexus is one reality that was employed in the Watts family fairy tale to convey an alternative reality.
The white Lexus in the Watts’ garage was a beautiful lie, and each day, that beautiful lie propelled Shan’ann and her two beautiful children through their days. Unbeknownst to them, the beautiful lie was slowly but surely conveying them – and their murderer – to an ultimate destination: permanent ruin.
Ironically, since Shan’ann’s nightmarish murder and burial on a leased oil site, rather than taking a knock, Thrive seems to have reaped a whirlwind of “positive” publicity.
Millions of curious Americans have visited Shan’ann’s still public page since August 13th, and in the process of getting to know her by watching her videos, millions have been pitched.
A sizable fraction of those visitors have undoubtedly converted into the Thrive fairy tale. Think about it. Thanks to Shan’ann’s grotesque death and dumping of her body “like trash” at CERVI 319, Thrive have likely seen a windfall of sales over the last four months leading up to Christmas.
Postscript:
The Discovery Documents also provide fascinating insight into how Watts changed his parking habits at the time of the murders, not only in terms of the truck [which was normally parked to the left of the front door, and Watts typically exited the house through the front door], but the Lexus as well.
And then there’s this. The Discovery Documents are unambiguous about Watts not only backing up his truck onto the driveway on the morning of the disappearance, but that witnesses had observed the Lexus’s rear hatch was open at the same time.
This could mean that one or more bodies were stowed in the boot of the Lexus prior to being transferred to the truck. It’s also possible then, that one or more of the bodies wasn’t carried outside in plain sight, but transferred instead in the semi-enclosed garage area, in the blind area of Trisnatich’s camera [in other words, from the Lexus hatch to the very rear of the truck].
Time. That’s the main difference between the Frazee case and Watts case. Just three days after Chris Watts was sentenced to life in imprisonment in Greeley, 29-year-old Colorado pilot Kelsey Berreth was last seen seen at a Safeway grocery store in Woodland Park, Teller County. CCTV recorded Kelsey shopping with her daughter from 12:05 to 12:27 on Wednesday, November 22nd.
While the cops were alerted to Shan’ann’s disappearance at about noon on August 13th, or within about ten hours after she was last seen by Nickole Atkinson, Kelsey was reported missing at noon on December 2nd by her mother Cheryl Berreth, ten days after she disappeared. Like Shan’ann, Kelsey was described as “not the kind that runs off.”
While it’s not relevant, strictly speaking, where the Watts home was relative to the Berreth’s home, for those unfamiliar with this case, and with Colorado, this map provides the basic geographic context.
Frazee lawyered up. It’s not clear precisely when Frazee lawyered up, but Jeremy Loew, his attorney features in the timeline on December 12th, 22 days after Kelsey’s disappearance. Watts, of course, never lawyered up.
On December 12th, Frazee handed over his cellphone and a cheek swab for DNA. That’s very late compared to what happened in the Watts case, where Shan’ann’s cell phone was seized on the afternoon of August 13 [Day 1], while Watts’s phone was confiscated at 21:00 on August 14th [Day 2].
Human remains. Shan’ann’s remains were found and exhumed approximately 67 hours after her murder. When Frazee was finally arrested on December 21, one day short of a month after Kelsey’s murder, it wasn’t clear whether her body had been recovered. What is clear [at the time of writing], that while it took less than three days to find Shan’ann’s body, Kelsey’s cadaver was missing for 696 hours, or four weeks and one day.
Frazee didn’t live with Kelsey. Frazee was based in Florissant, about 15 miles West from Kelsey’s home. The geographical distance between the couple could mean there was space for a third party to be involved as we saw in the Watts case. Since Kelsey was a young mother, the likelihood is greater that Frazee was cheating on her, than the other away round [assuming infidelity is even a factor].
Kelsey’s phone wasn’t found at her home, but eventually tracked to Gooding, Idaho, about 35 miles north of Twin Falls, almost 800 miles [1 290 kilometers] north west of Kelsey’s home. Shan’ann’s phone was found in the loft lounge, under some cushions on the couch. It is possible Watts took her phone with him, and returned it, or put it in the Lexus and retrieved it from there when he entered the garage.
Kelsey was a strong Christian, who wanted the same qualities in her partner.
Frazee didn’t participate in a press conference set up to find Kelsey. Lesson learned from Chris Watts’ catastrophic Sermon on the Porch.
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDyOvWeNGV
Frazee did not agree to an in-person interview with law enforcement. Watts did and was arrested within three days of committing the crime.
Kaylee Berreth, the couple’s 1-year-old daughter, survived the murder of her mother.
Now for the similarities between the Frazee case and the Watts case:
Authorities have not – thus far – disclosed how they believe Kelsey was killed. Due to the length of time her remains have likely been out there, we may never know. A similar uncertainty exists around time of death and precisely how or where the Watts family were killed.
Frazee was the last person to see Kelsey alive. Watts was the last to see his family alive.
Frazee appears to co-operate with law enforcement, though he’s less co-operative than Watts when one looks at the media aspect and the Frazee having a lawyer speak on his behalf. Nevertheless media were told he was co-operating. As a result of these shenanigans, Frazee appeared less plausibly a suspect -arguably – than Watts did.
Cellphone data [and “other data”] proved to be instrumental in both cases.
Certain aspects of the cell phone data appeared to be a ruse, contrived and calculated to create the impression Kelsey was alive when she wasn’t. Watts also made a call and texted Shan’ann hours after she was already dead. Unlike Watts, however, Frazee travelled a long distance to reinforce the impression that Kelsey was somewhere else. As mentioned above, Kelsey’s phone was recovered from Idaho. Since she was a pilot, it was somewhat conceivable that she’d flown somewhere. The cellphone is key. Police said the only signs of Berreth after Thanksgiving were some text messages and that location data suggested the phone by November 25 was near Gooding, Idaho, 800 miles (1,290 kilometers) from her house. – abc7
The crime appeared to be committed inside Kelsey’s home [which implies Kaylee was present].
Frazee was described as a “gentle soul” would never hurt anyone. From CNN: Sonja Oliver, who says she has known Frazee for five years, told Inside Edition, “I’ve always considered him to be a gentle soul. Soft spoken and just really down to Earth and practical.” Oliver says she “couldn’t imagine him doing anything that would harm anyone.” When asked by Inside Edition if she believes he had anything to do with Berreth’s disappearance, Oliver again stated, “I just can’t imagine Patrick doing anything like that.” This echoes the multiple early character references for Chris Watts – including from teachers, high school friends, co-workers, the Thayers, from his pal Jeremy Lindstrom, and from his parents. Nickole Atkinson and Cassie Rosenberg, who had the inside track into Shan’ann’s world, knew better, however.
The initial searches of the respective residences didn’t turn up anything. This suggests Frazee also covered up extensively, just as Watts cleaned up his crime scene. The digital deception suggests a real world parallel.
That’s ten similarities, that’s enough. Now for the Rocket Science treatment on what we don’t know. Please note these speculations are made hours after Frazee’s arrest and need to be seen in the light of extremely limited or non-existent information [check the date this blog was published].
Rocket Science’s Early Assessment of Kelsey Berreth Slaying
1. Why was Frazee arrested?
According to abc7the cops believe Frazee killed his fiance, but either they don’t know how, when or why, or they know and they’re not telling, or they’re sure of only a limited fraction of information.
“As you can tell from the arrest, sadly, we do not believe that Kelsey is still alive,” De Young said. Authorities also declined to elaborate on the solicitation of murder charge, how they believe Berreth was killed or any other aspect of the investigation.
The easy answer is that Frazee has been arrested because the cops don’t believe Kelsey is alive. The harder question to figure out is why don’t they believe she’s alive. The answer probably has something to do with the cadaver dogs.
There’s a big insight into the mind of law enforcement via the release to the press that Kelsey likely died at home – at her home.
Investigators who went to Berreth’s home found cinnamon rolls in the kitchen and both of her cars outside. De Young said the company where Berreth worked as a flight instructor, Doss Aviation, had accounted for all their planes and that police had no reason to believe she used someone else’s plane for a flight.
This makes sense, because Kelsey was last seen at a shopping center near her home, and was expecting Frazee to arrive later that afternoon to pick up their daughter. The fact that it was Thanksgiving, and he was coming to pick-up their child and take her with him, points to the possibility that they were either on the verge of breaking up, or in the process of it, but had not announced the end of their engagement to the public [which rings many similar bells to those in the Watts case, doesn’t it?]*
…the search and arrest affidavits will stay sealed for now. “There are a lot of investigative leads that need to be done,” May said. Authorities said as many as 30 FBI agents are participating in the investigation in several states.
Kelsey’s cars in the garage, and the sealing of the investigative reports, both echo what happened in the Watts case. It’s clear once the cops were able to confirm the flight logs with Doss Aviation that Kelsey hadn’t flown anywhere, her vehicles at her house and the CCTV footage started to sketch a mosaic that she was probably home.
A cadaver dog search [and reports indicate they searched for her above and below ground] would have confirmed or provided some potential confirmation that her remains, or part of her remains, were in and/or near the residence.
But just as we find in the Watts case, there’s a possibility that Kelsey’s body was transported back to Frazee’s ranch [an area he was as familiar with as Watts was with CERVI 319, and what’s more, could exert access control to] for burial.
Frazee was present when they arrived and later left the house with his daughter in the back of a sheriff’s vehicle, according to ABC News.
Several law enforcement vehicles – including a K9 search dog unit and an FBI pick up with a wheelbarrow in the back- were seen driving up the dirt road towards the farm where Frazee keeps cattle and horses. Later a convoy of search personal from Teller County Search and Rescue drove up. Greg Couch, Sheriff’s Office PIO at the scene, told Daily Mail.com: ‘We’re just giving him a courtesy ride off the property.
The excavations below on Frazee’s 35-acre ranch [left] were made by the cops. It’s unknown why they chose to dig in that area. But clearly there is excavation, and probably something was discovered [even a scent] on or under that disturbed earth that provided confirmation that Kelsey was dead.
‘He just left in one of those two cars. We’re just giving him a ride, I don’t know where he’s en route to but he was on the property when we got here. ‘When we do a search warrant we remove everyone so he’s gone.’.
Frazee, a farrier (horse shoer) and cattle rancher, also lives with his mother Sheila police confirmed [she] has also left the farm.
2. How could the cops be reasonably sure Kelsey didn’t go on a trip?
In both cases, there’s a psychology of the spouse or mother “running away” and disappearing. Ironically, this seems to be precisely what the murderer/s is/are doing. Watts wanted to “run away” with Kessinger, and so his motive is imputed – mirrored – onto Shan’ann as her going to an anonymous friend. When Watts was confronted with his affair, he was adamant that he didn’t want to identify Kessinger, which proves the mirroring was clearly in effect. The same scenario appears to be playing out in the Frazee case.
What Frazee couldn’t have anticipated was the Nickole Atkinson-factor.
Kelsey’s brother Clint Berreth had earlier revealed he went to her home shortly after realizing she was missing and is adamant she didn’t pack to go anywhere. Her luggage and makeup remained untouched, and her two vehicles were still at her home.
If Frazee was hoping Kelsey’s disappearance wouldn’t be noticed, well, he seriously miscalculated in terms of Kelsey’s brother Clint, just as Watts underestimated Nickole – and Nicolas.
3. The big question is whether Frazee was aware of, and attempted to learn from the “mistakes” of the Watts case. In TWO FACE ANNIHILATION, the 6th book in the K9 series, I will address this aspect. There is a very clear indicator for this being not merely possible, but probable. Can you see what it is?
*Kelsey’s mother disputes the idea that the engagement was crumbling.
Cherly said she spoke with Kelsey twice on the phone on the day of her disappearance. Asked what they talked about she told Today: ‘it was just small things, initially she needed a recipe. ‘Her voice was fine, it was a normal day for her’. Cheryl said while the couple did not live together, their bond was strong. She added: ‘The relationship has been good, they are loving’.
It may be that it wasn’t, or more likely in my view, that Kelsey herself wasn’t fully aware of a dalliance.
True Crime Rocket Science is supposed to be – and meant to be – exactly that.
TRUE CRIME
ROCKET SCIENCE
Intelligent discussion about true crime. Are your conversations and comments here intelligent?
This site is also meant to build the brand of a line of books. Incidentally, have you read any?
How to have conversations on this site
The idea is that people come here and make discoveries about crime, criminals, society and themselves. It’s meant to be a growing experience, a learning experience, and an affirmative experience. It’s meant to be interesting and meaningful, but meaningful above all.
How do we make sure it stays meaningful, and how do we avoid getting messy with one another?
Get personal about you
We can have meaningful conversations when we personalize what has happened in true crime, especially where we see errors of judgement or character flaws, and apply those to ourselves and our lives. Getting personal means being sincere – about ourselves. Am I materialistic? Is my community too preoccupied with appearances? Am I on social media too much? Is my work turning me into more of machine than a human being?
These are the conversations we want to have that enhance our coming together here.
Share technical or factual evidence
We can also extend the knowledge of cases by sharing information that we come across, or by providing facts, photos, forensic data, logic analysis etc. There have been some stunning contributions to date by a handful of readers, and what they all have in common is modesty and curiosity.
Test insights
This blog is also an excellent forum to test theories and insights, but it’s important to be humble when doing so. Is your theory off-the-top-of-your-hat, or have you thought about it, and do you have reinforcing information. Whichever it is, be honest about it.
Deepen the Hypothesis/Prove it Wrong
The narratives contain various hypotheses, one example being that Shan’ann’s murder took place downstairs. In order to deepen these theories, one has to have a superlative knowledge of all the evidence. If any information has been overlooked that supports a particular hypothesis, please be sure to let me know.
It’s not the goal of Rocket Science to be dogmatic about its own positions, especially if they can be improved upon, fine-tuned, or worse, if they are demonstrably wrong. All factual corrections are much appreciated.
It’s okay to be wrong
Nobody’s perfect. Mistakes happen. It’s okay to be wrong about something, but it’s not okay to always be in someone’s face about it. Move on. Remember the brief is:
TRUE CRIME
ROCKET SCIENCE
What Rocket Science is not about
It’s not about you. It’s not about me, either. It’s not Rocket Science when comments devolve into attacks, and it becomes us/me versus you/them. This isn’t high school, or a popularity context. We’re interested in true crime first, everything else is secondary.
As soon as the attempt to score ego points begins to dominate a particular discourse, everyone becomes distracted from the conversation, and concentration is squandered – thanks to your immaturity.
ALL CAPS, expletives, excessive use of question marks and quotation marks, name calling etc are all symptoms of this. If you’re doing that, you won’t last long here. If you’re doing that, I’ll see that and you’ll be on my radar. If you think you can misbehave and come back under a different email address, and a different avatar, ask the dozens who have already tried to do that and remain permanently banned from this site.
Insulting me will get you an express ticket off this site. I built this site. You’re welcome to take it all in, but if it’s not your cup of tea, please don’t stick around. If you don’t like it here and you do stick around, it will probably show. Just as in the real world, I decide who I want in my living room, and if I don’t like what you have say, or the manner in which you’re saying it, and if it’s the same negative stuff on repeat, just know it’s my prerogative to decide whether you stay or go, not yours. Like it or lump it, being here is privilege.
One way to avoid nasty repartee here, or on any forum, is by making sure you share your thoughts about the case and the characters involved. Not your thoughts about what someone else said. Your thoughts about the case and the characters. That’s all. That’s why we’re all here. So let’s discuss the case! If someone disagrees, be curious rather than threatened, and test your differences by referring to sources. What do the sources say? Do the sources agree on everything? Be interested in fact checking to advance what we know, not ego attacks, to advance your sense of self at the expense of knowing more.
On a personal note, I find moderating this site extremely tedious, frustrating and time consuming. I hope that will improve with time. Honestly, I would much rather be researching and writing, but I do see the value in having and growing a community, and exchanging new thoughts and ideas. It will obviously take time to gather a group of like-minded and smart people who want to engage with one another in a mature, and stimulating manner.
I would like the assistance of regular commenters to this site who have been here a while to assist in moderating the newcomers and guiding them where necessary. If the slurs and the nasty knee-jerk responses and the sarcastic shooting from the hip conversations continue, I will disable comments permanently. This is easy to do, I am tempted to do it and it will make life a lot easier for me. So it’s your call.
I also want to mention another ugly aberration that occurs from time to time at this site. Someone arrives, doesn’t like something they’ve read, don’t like something that’s said, and they then go straight to the books and leave troll reviews.
I could name a few of the folks that have come here and done that, but what’s more important is that you know who you are, and I know exactly who you are too, and obviously once that line is crossed, it’s over. In spite of your addiction to this case, and this site, you are never coming back.
That kind of behavior actually makes an excellent case to not bother to put up this site to begin with, and a strong case can be made that the time spent here offering up research and analysis for free, I could be investing in writing books that readers happily and willingly pay for [despite the troll reviews].
It’s incredible to me that on a site that’s about honesty, and talking about crime and deceit, and specifically a narrative called TWO FACE, people can behave in this manner. And they apparently feel completely justified in doing so.
These same people, on this site, have wondered why Chris Watts lied and thought he could get away with it.
Every so often, someone mentions that I don’t tolerate dissent. It’s true, like Ripley in Aliens, I have a low threshold for bullshit, as I hope the above illustrates and emphasizes. When you’ve been around the block and survived a few monsters in real life, having a low tolerance for other people’s bullshit is necessary.
But it’s not true that I reject a difference of opinion out of hand, as long as that opinion has a lot going for it. Does it? If it doesn’t, it’s not me being an asshole, it’s me saying you haven’t really thought your theory through, try harder.
A theory that is based on facts and information is one thing, an opinion that comes to you willy nilly, and that’s held up to be equal to my efforts, thought and the deep rationales that go into my narratives usually simply aren’t on the same level. Sorry if that’s tough to hear. If you think they are worthwhile and meaningful, prove it. If they are worth their salt, go on, prove it. Make your case, but put as much effort into making your case as I have. I’ve written a book. Put some thoughtful effort into your paragraph.
I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again; if you come here and you think the “opinions” expressed here are cheap, unfounded, biased and fictional, you should do yourself a favor and let yourself out. Either you get that a lot of work and mental focus has gone into figuring out these crimes and criminals, and is worth something, or you don’t. If you don’t, if you’re here to strut around and be dismissive, if you find you’re just not convinced there’s any merit to any position, please don’t waste your time and my time – find a resource that suits your standards.
If you’ve read this far, thank you for being so conscientious. You’re one of the good guys.
On a more positive and constructive note, I’d like to encourage those who live in Frederick, Colorado or the general area to send through photos of the environment if at all possible. The list of photos wanted include:
The for-sale/foreclosure sign at #2825 Saratoga Trail
#6508 Saratoga Trail
#6507 Black Mesa
The new fracking battery under construction now opposite Saratoga Trail
By doing this analysis of Coonrod’s bodycam video again, what are we looking for and why does it matter? We’re looking for Shan’ann’s phone. We suspect it wasn’t inside the house when Chris Watts first arrived arrived home on the 13th. But we could be wrong. It could have been inside the house.
In the analysis posted five days ago [Officer Coonrod’s Bodycam appears to show Watts tucking something under his arm…] we explored the possibility that Watts snuck something, possibly a phone, under his arm when he opened the passenger door of his truck. Watts had two phones, so it could be that the one under his arm was one of them.
In time we’ll do a more thorough analysis, looking for instances where Watts has his phone, and we’ll see what that looks like.
One of the commenters on this site, MattyB, has suggested Watts retrieved Shan’ann’s phone not in his truck, but in the passenger area of Shan’ann’s Lexus.
Let’s take a look.
https://youtu.be/Jamym-lOZUQ
It’s worth looking at the the whole manoeuvre in real time a few times to get a sense of how he’s moving relative to the camera behind him. MattyB has a point. Watts does appear to scootch down towards the floor mat of the Lexus passenger seat, and retrieve something there, something inside the Lexus.
It may be a case of visual bias – we may be seeing what we want to see, rather than what’s really there, but it does seem like Watts is retrieving a flat, pinkish object with his right hand. The same can’t be said for the object from the truck, tucked under his arm [it may be a phone, but it’s definitely not pink].
As soon as Watts gets what he came for, he turns away from the camera. He skedaddles through the garage’s rear interior door just as Nickole starts to advance on his position at the passenger door. Nickole then inadvertently blocks Officer Coonrod’s video view of the suspect.
What does this mean?
Again, this could be reading way too much into fuzzy video images, and we saw how some folks got carried away seeing a phantom Ronnie Watts or Nichol Kessinger accomplice in Trisnatich’s surveillance video. We don’t want to do that here.
So let’s just say tentatively, there could be two possibilities here.
1. Watts left Shan’ann’s phone in her car
Taking her phone with him presented an enormous risk. If he was seen with it, or caught with it, he would be in deep trouble, and if he turned it on, then a cross-reference for his phone and hers would implicate him directly.
It just wouldn’t be a good idea to take her phone with him, unless he could be in two places at once. If he had an accomplice, he or she could impersonate Shan’ann and leave a bogus message. But that didn’t happen.
It makes sense that Watts would leave the phone in her car, because that’s what Scott Peterson did as well. When Laci’s phone was found, it was plugged into her 1996 Land Rover SUV’s cigarette lighter, but had virtually no charge on it. Shana”n’s phone, when found, was also off.
The phone is a vital piece of evidence, because it locates both the victim, and in the case of a cover-up, provides insight into where the murderer doesn’t want an inquiring mind to go. If Watts did move the phone first to the car before he left, then from the car when he got back, why put it on the couch and not next to her bed, or suitcase?
The answer is, Watts probably preferred it if the phone wasn’t found, because it could incriminate him. But he couldn’t have the phone be completely irretrievable, as that would raise serious suspicions that Shan’ann wasn’t simply missing, but had come to harm. That scenario wouldn’t be good for him. But that’s precisely what Nickole Atkinson thought when the phone appeared but Shan’ann didn’t.
Putting the phone in the car delays discovery. Putting it on the couch under cushions also delays discovery, but confuses the location of the crime scene.
Unfortunately the phone wasn’t seized immediately as evidence and dusted for prints. Chances are Watts wiped traces of himself from the phone both times when he placed it in the car, and under the cushions.
2. Watts is a cagey bastard
Let’s assume that Shan’ann’s phone was in the Lexus when Watts pulled up. Let’s also assume that foremost in Watts’ mind was a sense of, “Oh shit, I’ve got to get hold of that damn phone…”
I’m not sure why he’d think that, perhaps because the mismatch of the bed sheets on the floor and the phone in her car, would implicate him more directly. But looking at Watts arrival the first thing he does – making for the garage and the Lexus – it does seem Watts was intent on staging the phone, and we know Watts knew that her phone had some utility in exonerating him in terms of his call to her phone and the staged message [Scott Peterson did the same thing on the way from his fishing trip].
If Watts’ first thought when he got out of the truck was to retrieve her phone, then if did that, he achieved it virtually without being seen even though he was on camera. That’s stealth. If true, I think it also reinforces the notion of a stealth attack when Shan’ann arrived at 01:48. This is a guy who is acutely aware of his surroundings, and the digital eyes and ears of his world.
But as savvy as he was to all these signals, what he was attempting to do was insane. What he was trying to pull off reminds one, quite frankly, of the scene in Entrapment when the cat burglar [played by Catherine Zeta Jones] tries to outwit a spider web of cotton strands with bells on them [symbolizing a security systems of laser beams]. You’ve got to know what you’re doing. Watts thought he did until one bell after the other started going off, only he was the only one who couldn’t seem to hear them.
In my opinion this is one of the most overlooked and crucial pieces of evidence related to establishing a timeline of events that night. I’m surprised you posted this without comment Nick and have not delved into the subject more.
As a preface to the rest of my post: If you’re unsure what these graphs are you are looking at, they are “step counts” recorded by iPhones of both Chris and Shan’ann. An iPhone has a “health app” that passively records your movement based on a variety of factors using gyroscopes, accelerometers and other various good stuff. It does this as “step counts” and represents them in a graph. The [quality of the] photos here are shocking but I can tell you that the Y axis goes up in increments of 200 steps, and the x axis is a is a 24 hour time period in one hour increments, starting at 12am on the selected day. I personally use this app frequently and am quite familiar with it.
How accurate are iPhones in recording steps? Pretty accurate. Refer to this video to get an idea:
Its important to note: The iPhone can ONLY record your steps if it is directly on your person and in motion. It can still be on but not record steps you do not have it. Is it also not fooled by car/air travel movement. Given that both Chris and Shan’ann were almost constantly glued to their phones, I feel this would be a quite accurate way to track their movement.
Now on to what the iPhones show:
Chris’ work iPhone: – Barely any activity on the Sunday, some very minor stuff late Sunday afternoon on the 12th. (possibly when he picked up the phone to text Kodi Roberts he will be at Cervi tomorrow morning). – 0000-0400 on the 13th. NO recorded activity. – 0400-0500 on the 13th. Some very minor movement in this hour. Establishes Chris as awake -0500-0600 on the 13th – Lots of movement and activity, Chris takes over 400 steps with the phone in his possession -0600-0700 on the 13th – Minor activity, this is when he had loaded the bodies and was driving the truck out to Cervi and dumping the bodies -0700 – 1000 another flurry of activity, Chris takes a combined total of around 1400 steps during these hours with the phone in his possession
Chris’ personal iPhone: – 2300-0000 on the 12th. Chris takes over 200 steps with his personal iPhone in his possession. We know he is awake at this time and the last time he texted Shan’ann was at 23:21. – 0000-0400 on the 13th. NO recorded movement from Chris’ iPhone during this period. He receives an alert from his Vivint security system at 0148 telling him the front door has been opened. – 0400-0500 on the 13th. Minor activity on the phone. Around 20-30 steps are recorded during this period. Establishes Chris as awake at this time. -0500-0600 on the 13th. A similar story to the work phone, increased activity with around 200 steps with the iPhone in his possession during the hour. -0600-0700 on the 13th. Another lull in activity with 20 or so steps record. Once again he is driving to Cervi and dumping the bodies.
Shan’ann’s iPhone: 0000 – 0100 on the 13th. Around 100 steps recorded 0100 – 0200 on the 13th. Around 800 steps recorded. She arrives home during this hour at 0148 0200 – 1500 on the 13th. NO recorded activity. 1500 – 1600 on the 13th. Just over 400 steps recorded. This is likely just after Chris ”found” the phone and switched it on again.
Summary: -Both of Chris’ iPhones (work and personal) show absolutely no movement with the phone in his possession after 12am and before 4am on the day of the murder. There is slight activity during the 4am to 5am period on both phones, with increased movement between 5am-6am before another lull. They are both very consistent with each other. – Shan’ann’s phone shows no movement after 2am Monday and before 3pm Monday. This means its likely that Chris turned her phone off completely after the murder and did not switch it back on until it was found by Nickole’s son. – The Vivint motion sensors on the ground floor alerted to Shan’ann opening the front door at 1:48am and did not detect any other motion on that floor until 4:23am. This matches almost perfectly with the recorded movement from all 3 iPhones and I believe has huge implications for when the murders took place.
Side note: More shoddy police work done in this case. If detective Baumhover had tried a little bit harder at his job, he would have noticed that underneath these graphs on the iPhone is a menu that contains an option named “Show All Data”. Clicking this option will allow you to see the EXACT times that the iPhone was picked up and moved during a given day, and the time that it stopped moving, and an approximate distance traveled/step count for each time.
Unfortunate that this wasn’t done as it would have helped nail down both parties movements much more accurately in the given time periods. Unfortunately these graphs broken into hour increments is all we have to work with.
Postscript – The iPhone Data shouldn’t be confused with the iWatch Data
The data reference above is entirely drawn from the 3 iPhones described in the document (Items 40, 41 and 42).It is possible to synchronize your iWatch to the iPhone so the data appears the same on both, but in this case I believe if the data had been synced the step counts and activity levels throughout the day would be much higher. (Based on personal experience and the fact that the watch is literally strapped to your body the entire day.)
In the discovery I cannot find any information about the iWatches themselves being forensically examined. I believe this is another huge and glaring omission by the police again. Why? Because the iWatch itself has an even more advanced suite of biometric data it gathers from the person its attached to, the main one of interest being their heart rate. If Chris and Shan’ann were wearing their watches at the time of the murder, the iWatch would have most definitely detected the massive heart rate spike resulting from that (along with the fact that Shan’annss watch would stop giving a heart reading entirely), and could have possibly even given us an exact time of murder.
In POST TRUTH, the 100th True Crime Rocket Science [TCRS] title, the world’s most prolific true crime author Nick van der Leek demonstrates how much we still don’t know in the Watts case. In the final chapter of the SILVER FOX trilogy the author provides a sly twist in a tale that has spanned 12 TCRS books to date. The result may shock or leave you with even more questions.
SILVER FOX III available now in paperback!
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Read the entire 9-Part TWO FACE series, the most definitive book series covering the Chris Watts Case
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Book 4 in the TWO FACE series, one of the best reviewed, is available now in paperback!
“Book 4 in the K9 series is a must read for those who enjoy well researched and detailed crime narratives. The author does a remarkable job of bringing to life the cold dark horror that is Chris Watts throughout the narrative but especially on the morning in the aftermath of the murders. Chris’s actions are connected by Nick van der Leek’s eloquent use of a timeline to reveal a motive.”
Unlike Watts, however, Frazee travelled a long distance to reinforce the impression that Kelsey was somewhere else. As mentioned above, Kelsey’s phone was recovered from Idaho. Since she was a pilot, it was somewhat conceivable that she’d flown somewhere. The cellphone is key. Police said the only signs of Berreth after Thanksgiving were some text messages and that location data suggested the phone by November 25 was near Gooding, Idaho, 800 miles (1,290 kilometers) from her house. – 
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