Claim #1: Chris Watts murdered his elder daughter after she witnessed him killing her mother.

Bella did not witness her mother’s murder.
Bella was dead before her mother’s murder.

Claim #2: It started with Shan’ann threatening to keep their children…

There were no arguments or conversations on Monday night or Tuesday morning, with the exception of a 111 minute phone call between Watts an Kessinger from approximately 21:00 to 23:00.

Claim #3: ….she learned of his affair…

Watts never admitted to the affair. He committed murder so that he didn’t have to admit to it, or confront her, and so that Kessinger wouldn’t find out about the pregnancy [either that Shan’ann was pregnant, or that he was the father, or both].

Claim #4: Bella reportedly spent her final moments begging her father to spare her life.

Bella did not “fight back” or beg. The injuries inflicted were in the process of forcing her little body through an 8-inch hatch, and then stomping on her to make sure she went all the way through.

Claim #5: Shan’ann had said something to the effect of, “well you’re not going to see the kids again.”

TCSR: This is true, but it wasn’t said on Monday morning. It came up for the first time in the Phone Data review on August 8th.

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On the same day Shan’ann declared to Cassie and Nickole [and in the same conversation about the house loan]:
It has been argued that Watts’ admission to killing Bella after she saw him kill her mother sounds genuine because he’s not trying to minimize what actually happened.
I would argue it is still minimizing. The way it is described in the media is that Bella “begged”. The way Watts probably told it likely very different. She simply said, “What are you doing to Mommy?” and then he quickly smothered her. That’s not begging.
All of this conforms to the classic “I just snapped” defense wormout. But semantics aside, what could be worse than Shan’ann freaking out, Watts killing her and then killing his child? What could possibly be worse?
A triple, premeditated murder – that’s what. A coldly calculated annihilation plotted and planned several days ahead of time and then coolly, almost casually executed when the time came. That is infinitely worse.