TRUE CRIME ROCKET SCIENCE

True Crime Analysis, Breakthroughs, Insights & Discussions Hosted by Bestselling Author Nick van der Leek

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“Do I walk out into a field to look for someone?” Chris Watts quoted in Nicholas Thayer FBI Interview [18th Tranche]

November 24, 2018 / / 2 Comments

During their interview with the media in mid-August after Chris Watts’ arrest, the Thayers’ mentioned giving interviews to the FBI. Since Amanda Thayer seemed to be more forthcoming than her husband – or simply knew more – I was eager to study her interview with the FBI. However it’s not available. It’s not part of the 1960 page Discovery Document file.

Also worth noting, according to the Thayers Chris Watts started exercising regularly in the fall of 2017. Nichol Kessinger’s first Google search of Shan’ann Watts was on 1 September, 2017.

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Insights from Addy Molony + The mortgage payment for August was due on August 16, 2018, the day after Watts was arrested for triple murder – Discovery Documents [20th Tranche]

November 23, 2018 / / 7 Comments

According to fellow Thrive promoter Addy Molony, Shan’ann would have likely been making “next to nothing” for the first couple of years. Shan’ann started working as a Thrive promoter in January 2016. It’s not clear whether Thrive promoters tell one another that, or just the police during criminal investigations.

In any event, while Molony couldn’t say how much Shan’ann was earning, in 2018 Shan’ann “hit the $80K mark”. I’m not sure what that means, but it doesn’t mean she was actually earning $80 000 a year. She was earning nowhere near as much as her husband’s meagre salary, and she was also borrowing money from him and maxing out all her credit cards.

It’s very likely that after going bankrupt in 2015, Shan’ann’s two years working at Thrive did a brilliant job at taking the family finances exactly nowhere.

Through Addy we’re also informed of Shan’ann’s reaction to getting an alert on her phone that Chris Watts had used her credit card while she was in Arizona, and ther $62 charge suggested he’d likely bought a meal for two.

Earlier that same date – Saturday August 11 – Kessinger Googled for 45 minutes on “how to prepare for anal sex”.

Addy also confirmed that Chris Watts parents [plural] did not like Shan’ann. When Chris Watts traveled to North Carolina in the first week of August, his parents told them they hadn’t seen their grandchildren in two weeks, even though she’d traveled there to visit his and her family over a 6 week period in total.
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https://youtu.be/Tdcu6WMvJwE

“When is RAPE OF CASSANDRA coming out and what’s it about?”

November 23, 2018 / / 11 Comments

There have been a number of eager inquiries about the next book on the Chris Watts case. When is it coming out? The fourth book in the ongoing TWO FACE series will be available in the first week of December.

What’s it about?

The current narrative of the Watts Family Murders is as follows*:

In the early morning hours of Aug. 13, a doorbell camera recording Shanann coming home from a work trip about 1:45 a.m.  Chris Watts was seen on a neighbor’s doorbell camera about 5 a.m. backing his truck into the driveway and going back into the house and out to the truck three times, likely as he loads the bodies, Rourke said, though the bodies can’t be seen on the camera.

Exactly what happened between those two camera recordings is still not certain.

Rourke said investigators do not know the exact sequence of events, partially due to how the bodies were disposed of, but it’s not uncommon for investigators to have difficulty establishing exact times of deaths.

RAPE OF CASSANDRA investigates the exact sequence of events, from the time of death in the Watts home, to how and why a “normal” family man wreaked a holocaust on his own family, and ultimately, himself.

*Source: Coloradoan, November 19, 2018

Available early December 2018…

Cassandra

Chris Watts deactivated his Facebook profile on August 11, 2018 – one day before the murders [16th Tranche]

November 23, 2018 / / 1 Comment

Chris Watts usual paid for Nichol Kessinger’s meal using Anadarko gift cards. But on the night of August 11, he paid using one of Shan’ann’s credit cards. This sent an alert to Shan’ann’s phone which worried her [and she had every reason to be worried]. To Nichol Kessinger the purchase with a credit card was a sign that the Chris Watts marriage to Shan’ann was over, which, ironically, tragically, it almost was.

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Some in true crime are the dwarf, some are the elf – which are you?

November 23, 2018 / / 1 Comment

There’s a scene in Lord of the Rings, the Fellowship of the Ring, where Gimli guides a pair of Hobbits through an enchanted forest. He tells them he’s one dwarf that won’t be ensnared so easily because “I have the eyes of a hawk and the ears of fox.”

It’s at this point that he almost walks into an arrow pointed at his face by an elf.

In true crime we deal constantly with tricks, deceptions, deceits and dead-ends. Because it’s literally about life and death for the criminals involved, the stakes in placing “an enchantment” over those watching from the sidelines couldn’t be higher. The question is, how good is our discernment, our perception, at seeing the wood for the trees in criminal cases, and vice versa?

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To be an “elf” in the true crime sense, we need to be able to see both perspectives, the wood and the trees, and how they form one another. It can be difficult to see the wood when surrounded by trees, but equally, it can be difficult to see inside the wood when you’re far on the outside, and especially when a suspect is doing his damnedest to distort the scene in smoke and mirrors.

But a good true crime elf can see through the smoke, and can navigate both the minuatiae and the big picture elements of a crime. Which are you? The elf or the dwarf?

TCRS Assessment: Shan’ann’s post mortem alcohol level appears abnormally high

November 23, 2018 / / 28 Comments

The word alcohol features 55 times in the Discovery Documents. That’s more than five times more than the word Le-Vel, the company Shan’ann worked for, and because she was returning from a  Le-Vel conference, Le-Vel actually forms part of the crime narrative.

The word pregnant appears 78 times across the 1960 pages.

From this perspective we can see that alcohol forms a fairly significant part of the crime narrative.

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So what is the significance of alcohol exactly? Well, we’re not sure. The District Attorney has mentioned it as the key reason the autopsy reports were suppressed, and also, that the alcohol found in Shan’ann’s remains was “normal”, simply as a result of ordinary decomposition.

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Very, very consistent? I wasn’t sure about that so I checked with a friend who works in forensic science, including forensic medicine. Before I share what he told me, let’s review some of what we know about alcohol references in Shan’ann’s social media, as well as the Discovery Documents.

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The above message was sent close to August 4th, around 14 weeks into Shan’ann’s pregnancy, and just a week before her death.

On November 5th I posted on this site about Shan’ann’s possible alcohol use in Sneaky with Seltzer?

On January 14, 2017 Shan’ann refers to Chris having Activate [a Thrive product] with his “drink”, with dinner. It’s at 2:33 in the clip below.

https://youtu.be/fuzTjDpkizg?t=153

At 8:52 and again at 19:23 in the clip below [dated November 27, 2016 ] Shan’ann tells her Facebook flock that her husband – who’s doing the laundry – “needs to get me my wine…”

https://youtu.be/1M44hQ2Xls8?t=1150

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Are there any other photos of Shan’ann drinking alcohol? The image below could be white wine. It’s unclear what impact alcohol would have on her lupus other than a sedative effect – taking the edge off and perhaps soothing the discomfort – and possible interactions with her medication.

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From the Discovery Documents there’s a mixed bag from her friends, with some saying she drank a few times a week, to others saying she never drank. Make of these testimonies what you will.

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According to Addy, Shan’ann didn’t drink any alcohol whatsoever during the trips to San Diego or Arizona. Since Addy was a Thrive promoter and effectively a business partner of Shan’ann’s, I’m not sure whether we can place too much value in her statement.

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Thus far it seems unanimous. All the Thrivers thus far are saying Shan’ann never touched a drop of alcohol, and would never do so when pregnant. And she didn’t drink at all while they were in Arizona.

Nickole Atkinson however, has a slightly different story to the other Thrivers.

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The detective doesn’t mention whether Shan’ann had a drink on the three hour flight back to Denver. It’s not clear who sat beside who, and if Shan’ann did have a drink, whether anyone would have noticed.

shanann watts drinking wine

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Now, according to the autopsy reports there was an elevated amount of alcohol in Shan’ann’s mildly decomposed body.

According to my source, and I’ll try to get him on the record with a written statement identifying himself and his assessment, post mortem toxicology is seldom reliable because of post mortem redistribution. What that means is certain substances like alcohol diffuse through various organs and tissues as the body begins to break down, and this muddies the overall chemical picture, if that makes sense.

In his assessment, which is also the TCRS assessment:

“I doubt whether you can get to that level [0.128 g/100 mL]. Maybe a 0.02 from zero. You only have so much bacteria [in the gut] that can cause fermentation, so it would be very limited.”

To get an idea how much alcohol is involved, Shan’ann’s post mortem alcohol levels were roughly three times the legal blood alcohol limit for driving. This suggests she may consumed 4-6 glasses of wine in the hours prior to her murder.

Further analysis pending.

Spirit cooler i.e. Hooch / Brutal Fruit = 1.2 -> 1.9 U =0.02g ->0.035g
Cocktail = +/- 2 -> 2.5 (or occasionally even more) Units =0.04g->0.05g
Quart of Beer = 3.3 -> 4 Units =0.08g blood = 0.4mg breath
Double spirit = 2 Unit = 0.04g
Shooters – e.g. Apple sours = 1/2(half) Unit =0.01g
90 mls of 12% white wine (most white wines) = 1 Unit = 0.02g
75 mls of 14% red wine = 1 Unit = 0.02g

Legal Limits: Blood alcohol concentration = < 0.05g per 100ml.

Breath alcohol concentration = < 0.24mg per 1000ml

The #1 Word Missing from the Sermon on the Porch, #1 Document Missing from the Discovery Documents and the #1 Evidence Photos We Still Haven’t Seen

November 23, 2018 / / 35 Comments

Rocket Science isn’t just about the ability to filter, fathom and analyze the information that is there, it’s the ability to spot what’s not there. Over the past few days I’ve challenged the readers of this site to find the most important word missing from the Sermon on the Porch. By the end of this post I’ll reveal what that word is.

#1 Evidence Photos We Still Haven’t Seen

Before we get there, let’s deal with the most important evidence photos missing from the voluminous 1960 page Discovery Documents. Where are the crime scenes photos?  Why are there half a dozen or so photos of Nichol Kessinger, including one in various states of undress, as well as dozens of screenshots of phone messages, including some retrieved from the metadata of Kessinger’s phone, but absolutely no photos of the crime scene?

To be clear, there are two crime scenes at issue here: #2825 Saratoga Trail, and CERVI 319. In all the crime scenes I’ve investigated thus far, this is the first where there is no photographic and/or video evidence of the crime scenes. Not so far. Is it in the mail? Think about the JonBenet Ramsey case, the Oscar Pistorius case, Madeleine McCann, Amanda Knox, West Memphis Three, OJ Simpson, Casey Anthony – all of them have disclosed images of the crime scene.

The Discovery Document dump is a huge mountain of evidence, but the mountain itself is missing something. Why?

There aren’t even any images of the couple’s vehicles.

#1 Document Missing

In the entire tranche of documents the word “bank” appears just seven times, with three of those references coming from a law enforcement interrogator talking about his experience in bank robberies.

The financial situation of the Watts family is CRUCIAL to this case, and yet it’s glossed over. One of the key unanswered questions in this case is how much money was Shan’ann ACTUALLY making as a Thrive promotor, if any? Well, we still don’t know, and until we get those statements, we’ll remain in the dark.

What we can say, through inference, is that Shan’ann was the spouse that was in deep financial shit. Chris Watts wasn’t earning a super great salary, but as so-so as it was, Shan’ann was still very reliant on him for financial assistance [as the excerpts below confirm]. This is why Shan’ann really didn’t want a divorce, especially not in July and August with another child on the way. She also had health issues. Shan’ann COULDN’T let Chris Watts leave her.

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Finances are so at issue here, so central, Chris Watts didn’t just call his realtor shortly after dumping the bodies of his wife and children, he also called Chase bank – twice! Besides all this, it seems he was intent on getting out his house ASAP so he could sell it. He was already half moved out when the murders took place anyway – he was sleeping in the basement and running around after Nichol Kessinger while Shan’ann was AWOL in North Carolina.

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The fact that Chris Watts couldn’t [wouldn’t?] provide the cops with access to the bank accounts and records confirms why this information is vital. So where is it?

And Chris Watts was also a Thrive promoter – how much was he making with Le-Vel?

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#1 Word Missing from the Sermon on the Porch

When we go through the call records, we see quite a lot of interaction with Kessinger prior to the murders and just after. On August 13th, the night after the murders, Watts and Kessinger were still in touch, discussing the goings on. Then, the next morning, Chris Watts was confronted by a phalanx of reporters gathering alongside his porch.

During his seven-minute interview there was one word he forgot to mention. He forgot to say Shan’ann was pregnant. The word doesn’t come up a single time. People were getting worried about her, he says, because she wasn’t getting back to her people. And it’s okay if she doesn’t get back to him, but she didn’t get back to her people…

But shouldn’t he be worried about her condition? Isn’t it a pretty big deal that she’s missing and pregnant? Chris Watts slyly leaves this crucial piece information out of his narrative. He also talks about Bella going to kindgerten the following week, but neglects to mention Shan’ann had a pregnancy reveal party that weekend. Why would she disappear if she’d arranged a party?

For Nickole Atkinson the pregnancy, her lupus and the fact that Shan’ann had said she hadn’t been feeling well weekend was central to why she raised the alarm. Another word that doesn’t come up in Watts’ Sermon on the Porch is “doctor” or “appointment”. He simply doesn’t mention it. This was a crucial clue early in the day that something was wrong, and also – if you think about it – if Shan’ann had gone to a friend, why would she miss her doctor’s appointment?

More pertinently, why doesn’t the pregnancy come up when he addresses the media?

Mistress of Chris Watts speaks out

Nichol Kessinger on Nov. 15, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

Why? Simple. Chris Watts knows or expects one particular person to be watching, and he doesn’t want to disappoint her. He also plays the interview as a somewhat concerned husband, but he’s casual attitude is meant to show Kessinger that while he’s concerned, it’s not a big deal – it’s not as though he still loves her/them. Once things blow over, he wants to be back to business as usual with her. And he imagines, somehow, the news that Shan’ann’s pregnant won’t come out if he doesn’t say anything [just as Scott Peterson assumed the same thing].

The funny thing with liars and living a lie, is that strategically leaving out information can buy you a lot of room to move with those close to you, and those who have your trust. You can get away with a lot, fool many people for a long time.

In true crime though, and with the media, that game doesn’t wash. The mainstream media is the MSM, not the MLM media. Different folks, different standards, a different kind of critical thinking, and very different speeds at hearing pennies drop.

One world is based on lying and manipulating and scamming to make a living [and not even that]. The other is closer to the real world. But even as the media has begun to report on the Discovery Documents, they aren’t the reality of the Watts case just yet. A few steps in the right direction, yes,  but with a whole bunch of important stepping stones removed. And there’s still no clear way across to the Promised Land of this true crime case without them.

Grey puzzle pieces

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