True Crime Analysis, Breakthroughs, Insights & Discussions Hosted by Bestselling Author Nick van der Leek

Chris Watts said they had sex before he murdered her. Do you believe him?

Over the past few months TCRS has made and repeated some bold claims:

  1. Shan’ann never went to sleep and wasn’t murdered in her sleep.
  2. Shan’ann never went to bed on the morning of August 13.
  3. Shan’ann never made it upstairs on the morning of August 13.
  4. The murder didn’t take place in the bed, or the main bedroom, or anywhere else upstairs.
  5. On the morning of August 13 there was no discussion, and no argument leading to or triggering the murder prior to the murder.
  6. Watts never spoke to Shan’ann at any time after she arrived home that morning, and she didn’t speak to him [not even during the murder].
  7. Shan’ann was murdered immediately after she arrived home, at approximately 01:48.
  8. And if all these aspects are taken into consideration, they definitely didn’t have sex.

But Watts said they did. They had sex, they talked, they argued, they were in bed, they both slept etc. After the discovery was released, including the unedited First Confession, it emerged how an argument triggered all three murders. Even so, TCRS’ position on how, where and when the crime was executed didn’t change. After the Second Confession, when it emerged that an argument, going to sleep and sex preceded Shan’ann’s murder, TCRS’ position didn’t change.

Chris Watts’ version contradicts each and every point of the eight points listed above. Is TCRS wrong on all eight counts? Is Watts really lying on all these aspects? Is he lying about everything?

Let’s focus for the moment on one aspect. Did they have sex? In his Second Confession, Chris Watts claimed they had sex on that final Monday morning after Shan’ann returned from the airport. When I heard this for the first time my eyes rolled.

Here’s why.

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. The law also relies on this conventional wisdom by invoking behavior precedents to explain what is “reasonable behavior” in a particular context, irrespective of claims to the contrary. Incidentally much of the law itself is based on precedents, with one law “built” on the legal precedents that went on before.

A simpler way of putting this is:

We are what we repeatedly do.

It’s reasonable to assume then what we repeatedly do is what happens in a particular situation where we’re struggling to decide on the veracity of what really happened. We’re simply making the argument here of what’s reasonable.

So what was he doing around the time of the murder? What was she doing? What was going on?

To answer this we could refer to Shan’ann and Chris Watts’ sleeping habits [in North Carolina and on Shan’ann’s final two nights sleeping in her home in Saratoga Trail] as a way to fathom whether they slept together in the same bed on Monday night.

We could refer to whether Watts was affectionate to his wife in the final few weeks of her life. Was he touching her? Was he saying the right things over the phone while they were apart?

On the question whether they had sex, we could also just check whether they were having sex prior to the morning of August 13th. 

So, were they?

Yes or no?

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If Chris Watts was lying about having sex with Shan’ann on the night of the murder, what else was he lying about during his Second Confession to detectives on February 18th, 2019?

And if he was lying about them having sex, what was he actually doing that morning if he was doing something else?

Coming soon…



  1. julinka1981

    I rolled my eyes too when I heard it. I mean he didn’t sleep with her for weeks and SW was angry with him, his out of character behaviour-going for a game,high bill,not touching her,talking to her.I mean that would have been one angry sex 🤣 he also said that after sex(I might not remember it correctly) he woke her up because he wanted to tell her he was not happy. Why??? According to CWyou have just had sex at 2-3am in the morning and have to get up at 5am and you want to talk to your wife ? Person who doesn’t discuss things,wants to have an important convo just before work? Plenty of opportunities to talk about it and arrange a babysitter in the evening. He chose to make this up in a very strange way and people are more outraged he “slept” with her and then murdered her.Didn’t play as goof as he thought it would I think.

  2. Ira

    I do not think they did. It was late, she was probably exhausted from the later than planned flight. Plus, he had to do it right away, or he could risk her checking on the already dead girls. If that had happened, she would be screaming, neighbors possibly awoken, and the whole plan would have been completely foiled. He had to have ambushed once she arrived, or not that long afterwards.

  3. kimj1111

    I actually believe they did have sex – her keeping on her makeup and wearing a thong while pregnant always seemed off to me (not impossible to happen without sex, could just be her habit, but I thought it was a possibility long before his second confession). I think she was desperate to have any connection with him, and before he was having an affair, her friends said they had a very active sex life.

    Often when a couple (or half of a couple, in this instance) has their marriage blown up by infidelity, “hysterical bonding” occurs, which is counter intuitive until you are in the middle of that storm of love, hate, sex, repulsion, desperation of holding onto any part of the relationship. Kind of a hate f*ck, which can be quite adrenaline inducing for the one who wants out of the relationship. And Shan’ann likely saw how ignoring him in NC ultimately backfired on her in regaining Chris’ affections.

    I believe he lied in his confession in areas that suited him, but there are some details that rang true for me, and this is one. I think it was a surprise that he was not anticipating during his premeditation of the crime, and ultimately was the last thing he wanted. By complying while half asleep, he bought himself a bit of time to feel like he thought it out and to proceed to get rid of his family.

    • ncam619

      Here’s why I don’t believe they had sex that morning either: Shan’ann’s friends say they had an active sex life but, of course, they only know what Shan’ann told them and I think she exaggerated to make her friends think they had a great relationship. A lot of women do that. So it’s not surprising to me. On the other hand, chris said that he and Shan’ann hadn’t had sex since the baby was conceived in April, which was why he was so surprised about the pregnancy. He also said that Shan’ann often “shot him down” when he initiated sex and she didn’t like “the mess” during sex. I’m incline to believe chris in this situation.ONLY because it just seems to fit Shan’ann’s personality (controlling and obsessive cleanliness). It also explains why is was so easy for him to cheat with NK. She was willing to provide him the attention and sex he was missing at home…and then some.

  4. Maura

    No, I don’t believe him. I don’t believe 99% of the 2nd “confession.”
    Chris had done everything he could to avoid confrontation with SW for a whole month. Now he’s going to have the important convo at 2 or 4am? No.

    With her plane’s delay he had 3 hours less to cleanup and dispose of the bodies. I think the kids were dead and he ambushed her on the first floor after she arrived. Why would he risk her going upstairs and missing the kids, and then have to carry her 145 lb. body down the stairs without creating a bigger crime scene?

    Also, Shan’ann had told her friend she wasn’t going to talk to CW due to the time and he’d be asleep. With her strong suspicion that he’d been out with someone the night before, especially if she’d called the restaurant about the dinner bill, she wouldn’t confront him in the middle of the night. She wouldn’t be feeling that sex was going to fix him lying or cheating. And being preganant, sick, exhausted and knowing she had to get up early for the girls and go to the doctor she would want to grab a few hours of sleep.

    What was Chris’s motive in saying he’d had sex with his wife? Maybe to get back at NK because he did not like what she said about him post murders. He’d had sex with NK the night before. He killed his family to be with her.
    Or, to make it seem like he still cared about SW and that these murders were not premeditated. So that everyone family and all would buy his story that what he did happened in a heat of the moment situation. He cares about people thinking he’s a “good guy”.

    I suspect he created the tale about driving his kids alive to his work site to remove them from the true crime scene, hide his murder planning efforts, and details of their deaths via drugs, and his extensive cleanup afterwards. No one asked why he put the kids’ bodies into the tanks instead of burying them.

    • Ralph Oscar

      “I suspect he created the tale about driving his kids alive to his work site to remove them from the true crime scene, hide his murder planning efforts, and details of their deaths via drugs, and his extensive cleanup afterwards. No one asked why he put the kids’ bodies into the tanks instead of burying them.”

      That makes sense to me as well. But it seems to me that putting the bodies into the tanks would be much more time and effort efficient than burying them. Why *not* put the bodies into the tanks since he was out there anyhow? The bodies certainly fit…

      But that is a question I would love to see asked – and asked again – of Chris – WHY did he put the kids’ bodies into the tanks? The only answer I can see is that he was planning on making them all *disappear*.

      • Maura

        Possibly to destroy evidence of how he killed his kids with drugs. Drugs that weren’t given in the heat of the moment.

  5. Sylvester

    Also if they had sex, she makes it upstairs, gets ready for bed, and most importantly, looks in on the kids. There were no dog alerts in CeCe’s room – does that mean CeCe was in Bella’s bed? If Shan’ann saw that – either on the monitor or by peeking into Bella’s room, that would have looked a little out of the ordinary to her. Of course if neither were in their beds, that would have been an even greater cause for alarm. Also there was no reason for Watts to get in bed at all that night. Nichole K. figured he was waiting up for Shan’ann to come home, and that was late as was, before he knew her flight was going to be delayed. Also he set the doorbell camera just prior to her arriving home. How does that give him time to be in bed and asleep, to have Shan’ann wake him up to have sex. However, why would he add having sex to his new confession. During his first confession he wanted Shan’ann out of her own bed and on top of CeCe in her bed. Now he wants to place her back in her bed. Musical beds, and very strange.

    • nickvdl

      why would he add having sex to his new confession.>>>So that he seems more of a loving husband again. if they reconcile just before he murders her, he sort of loves her until the last moment. Crazy but less ugly than if he plotted to kill her in a cool, calculated fashion.

    • Ralph Oscar

      “most importantly, looks in on the kids”

      Nope – that is one detail we can be *confident* that SW would *never* have done. The kids were light sleepers, remember? She wouldn’t even allow CW to open the garage door downstairs for fear of waking them! She’s getting home at 2 AM – exhausted, sick – and she is looking at 3 hours of sleep MAX before she has to be up again tending the girls.

      Is SW going to chance that a peek into the girls’ bedrooms will wake them up – at 2 AM under those conditions?

      No way!

      • Ralph Oscar

        If the girls had been put to bed at their 6 PM bedtime (WTF), then waking up at 2 AM would be a full 8 hrs of sleep right there.

      • Ira

        I agree she probably wouldn’t Ralph. But would Chris had risked the small chance she would have? And yes that bedtime regiment is outrageous lol

      • ncam619

        You’re right. And they were “sleep trained”. My nieces are sleep trained. They have very strict rules (it’s VERY OCD) : you turn the rain machine up sky high to drown outside noises out, you don’t linger in the room when you put them in bed, and you NEVER EVER physically check on them. The kids are checked on throughout the night by monitor only.

  6. Sylvester

    Perfect answer, and soothes my troubled mind. Thank you.

  7. Sylvester

    Wow. It’s really really important to him that he continues to “look good.” Looking good is in the top ten of human rackets – we all have it to a certain extent, some more than others. It’s not just about appearances, but about saving face. It’s mainly a cover-up device we all use to have others perceive us as put-together, good, kind, accommodating, whatever it is we are covering up that we’re not. When he fell out of love with Shan’ann – or first realized that he was no longer in love with her, he probably hoped he could get it back initially, but he met someone else. And from then on I think no matter what he was made painfully aware that he was in a loveless marriage, not unlike what Trent Bolte said he said. Imagine though how long he was walking around dead, with a smile pasted on his face. Going through the motions. Then her MLM came along and it promoted everything that he was pretending they had, a perfect family, that wasn’t true. So we come back full circle to Two Face and the title of these books. And he’s still pretending.

    • Laura Thompson

      “Looking good is in the top ten of human rackets.”

      Wow, this resonates. It also ties into the quote of Nick’s that gave me chills, i.e., something to the effect of murder being a byproduct of lies, or a regular consequence. (I forget the exact quote, and am too lazy right now to look it up, but it’s a chilling thought, and has a great deal of truth to it.)

  8. Ira

    “Then her MLM came along and it promoted everything that he was pretending they had, a perfect family, that wasn’t true”
    Yes, she was painting the perfect picture, which was probably daily salt in the wound for him, as inside he was truly miserable in every way. A person can only hide that for so long.

  9. Shannon

    If you look at Shanann’s face, the expression….as she walking to the front door. She doesn’t look happy….
    No sex, No sperm found.

    Thank you Nick for this post. Finally.

  10. Shannon

    I don’t see my comment.

  11. Sylvester

    Watts also tells Lee in the second confession that he didn’t pack a change of clothes that morning in his work truck, he just always has a change of clothes in there, and two pairs of work boots but weren’t his new work boots found in the trunk of the Lexus? Also Lee asks him where did he change clothes. He skirts around that question too by trying to confuse the issue by going back to saying he dumped the clothes on the way home when Nickole A. called him. Coder asks “when Baumhover was there?” Watts says yeah, but then Lee counters with but that was on the way home wasn’t it? In otherwords that’s dumping the clothes, not where he changed. So he doesn’t answer where he changed clothes, and he embellishes on his answer that he always carries a change of clothing due to oil fumes, etc. Again, he’s trying to skirt away from the issue of premeditation (imo). Lee did a good job of countering his answers, but he’s still not answering. I counted 18 times where he pretends to be confused and doesn’t answer. He also sniffs repeatedly. This is something a former friend of mine used to do. “The sniff” I called it. Sniffing is a sign of deceit and distrust. She used to do it right after she told a lie or embellished on a story. It’s kind of a punctuation point after the lie. I’ve caught myself doing it and I recognized it.

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