True Crime Analysis, Breakthroughs, Insights & Discussions Hosted by Bestselling Author Nick van der Leek

Month: January 2019 (Page 3 of 8)

The Dynamic between Chris Watts and Nichol Kessinger that everyone is missing

I don’t usually discuss dynamics here simply because it’s not something you can come to lightly, and it requires a lot of focus, concentration and backstory to understand. The other issue with discussing dynamics on an open forum is it attracts the most biased and closed-minded folks of all.

These types are likely to rush in and begin lecturing on why their opinion is just as informed if not more so, and in fact better. So that’s why I don’t discuss dynamics here.  It’s not about who is right, or who is more right, it’s about figuring out the true nature of this crime and why it happened. So we want to see where the insights take us, not bicker about whose insights are best.

Relationship dynamics are a sensitive subject. Whatever we say tends to reveal our own views of others, and ourselves, and it may expose others and make them feel judged or otherwise uncomfortable. That’s why this discussion sits better in a narrative that one has to pay for and will spend time with – pondering it in private.

What I will say, as I reach the finishing stages of the fifth book in the TWO FACE series, is that the dynamic between Chris Watts and his mistress will never be understood as long as people continue hating and throwing stones. If you wish to feel good about how awful Chris Watts is – go on.  It seems some people don’t tire of this pursuit after weeks, months, perhaps even years. If you think Kessinger deserves to be lambasted and accused and insulted till kingdom come, don’t expect to ever understand the dynamics of why the crime happened. You can’t have both. You can’t have emotional/ego satisfaction and expect to gain any intellectual insight or understanding.

One can’t hurl insults one day and on another, innocently go: “Why? Why don’t we know why?”

To understand their emotional dynamic we have to put our emotional dynamic [our projection, transference, bias] aside. Are you ready to do that? If so, then read on.

An Inferiority Complex

Chris Watts felt inferior in his marriage. His overall introversion suggests a crisis of confidence in general. It’s clear from the videos, he played second-fiddle most of the time to a domineering wife.

Initially he probably liked that she took control and perhaps it worked very well for both of them. Maybe he wanted to take the back seat, wanted her to be in control. But after a while it got old. He tired of being told what to do and how to do every damn thing. That’s not being unkind to Shan’ann – she was OCD so it was natural for her to be antsy about everything. The problem was that he probably allowed it to get out of hand. Instead of setting boundaries, he allowed her to walk all over him, and when he wanted to stand up for himself it was too late. He didn’t know how to and perhaps even if he did, she wouldn’t let him.

With “three girls” in the house, over time he felt increasingly impinged in some way. Probably, over time, the spark did start to disappear in their marriage and probably, at the time, the idea of having a third child made sense to bring them back together.

It’s clear to me that shortly after mutually deciding to have a child, Watts had a change of heart. This may have been because he had an epiphany then about their finances, or because he realized he’d developed feelings for someone else, or both. It may also be that he had the idea but hadn’t thought through what it actually meant, and what consequences came with it [just as occurred with the affair, and the murders].

Rediscovering Himself

It could also be that at the same time the spark was fading in their marriage, Watts’ sense of inferiority was changing. Even though his wife still had him in a box [she thought], a part of him was starting to escape and rediscover himself. His work life was one area where he was growing and enjoying respect. Of all the Thrivers in this story, Watts was arguably Thriving the most – he looked the part, he was developing in his career, he was also living the part [including with the hot mistress from work].

But despite Watts’ newfound freedom [to cheat, to go camping, to eat out and hire a babysitter], the other aspect was that because Shan’ann was in total control of everything, she was also in total control of the finances. Her control of the finances meant at the end of the day she was in control of Watts’ ability to conduct an affair [especially once she arrived home].

Whether you wish to believe Watts was bringing in 100% of the income, 90%, or 50%, whatever is the case Shan’ann was the one controlling the money and also spending a lot of the money. Besides the mortgage they couldn’t afford, a lot of the money was going to medical expenses for Shan’ann and both children. Watts had virtually zero medical expenses; he didn’t even spend money on a gym. If Watts was contributing most of the money to the household [and I believe he was] but spending hardly any of it, then this was cause for massive resentment when he found out how little money they actually had.

Realizing the True Scale of their Financial Debacle

Throughout this case people have pooh-poohed the financial situation. Even the District Attorney did at the sentencing hearing. A triple murder happened, no one knows why. And the finances weren’t really that bad. Really? Watts must have felt they were really that bad for him. Three months behind on their mortgage, a mortgage payment due the day prior to his arrest, hefty private school bills that he did his damnedest to avoid on the day after dumping their bodies, about $10 000 in credit card debt [all credit cards maxed out]and another $25 000 still outstanding on Shan’ann’s neck surgery.

How was Watts going to continue to conduct an affair with no money? And why had they fallen behind on their mortgage in the first place? Who was supposed to be paying for that? And where did the money for the house go if it didn’t go to the house? Did it go to San Diego, North Carolina and the flights to and from Arizona?

Giving Away Control – Then Taking It Back

Watts had given control over many things to Shan’ann, and one of those included control over the finances [including his money]. Possibly he discovered the true extent of their financial woes while Shan’ann was away. He took some time off and maybe opened a few bills, looked at their account online, looked at the accounts in her office.

I believe a huge area missing in the Discovery Documents and the text messages on their phones, are arguments about money. Put otherwise – why are there no arguments about money given their disastrous financial situation?

When Watts bought a meal for two for $62 on Saturday, August 11th, Shan’ann immediately alerted to this expense. What about all the others? That conversation leads somewhere, and somewhere very serious, but I won’t be discussing that dynamic in any more detail here either. Let’s deal with one dynamic at a time.

Inadequacy

At some point in 2018, Watts found himself in an affair that allowed him to be someone else. He wasn’t being ordered around any more. He was being listened to. He had become someone again. Moreover, he was interested in and wanted to know about the woman he was with, and wanted to converse with her, and be with her. But he also felt incredibly inadequate around her.

He had good reason to feel inadequate. She was better educated, solidly middle class [whereas he was blue-collar trying to be middle class], and probably better paid than he was. Kessinger’s finances were clearly in far better shape than his were but besides that, his wife was pregnant, and their finances were eating them alive. Plus he had two children to take care of as well.

So there was no way on paper he “deserved” Kessinger unless he lied to her. He knew that. If he told the truth he knew wouldn’t have been “good enough” for her. He wanted to be good enough. He didn’t want what he had in his marriage, which was to be relegated to an ATM, errand boy, video prop and baby maker.

So all things being equal, Watts found himself in an affair with someone who liked him, and whom he liked, but nevertheless wasn’t right for him. She was smarter, she was available but in a sense, was out of his league. Most of us can’t see just how out of her league he was because we can’t stop demeaning her as the wicked mistress.

But if we look at them as people on paper, he wasn’t as smart as she was, he wasn’t as available as he pretended to be, and financially he definitely couldn’t afford to be in a romantic relationship [with all its ancillary expenses] with anyone.

In order to be in a relationship with Kessinger, he needed to be divorced. But if he divorced he’d likely lose the house directly or indirectly in terms of alimony and many other mutual debt obligations.

He would have calculated that in order to be with Kessinger he needed the house. Not to keep or to live in, to sell. To be engaged in a relationship with a woman, especially one a man feels is better than he is, he’s going to feel he needs a lot of “spending money” as the old George Harrison song goes.

To understand the dynamic between Watts and Kessinger, we must understand how and why he felt inferior to her and with her. His appearance counted in his favor. She found him sexy and attractive, and obviously his Thriving and jogging and working out at home had imbued him with a good physique. So that part was good.

But the rest wasn’t. He needed to be divorced and he wasn’t [hadn’t even discussed it]. He needed there not to be a pregnancy [but there was]. And he needed money [money that wasn’t there unless he sold the house soon, and at a profit].

Murder was Watts’ way of balancing out the equation, at least in his mind. Of course, as soon as he committed the murders his inferiority to Kessinger became manifestly clear, both to her and to him.

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The Atkinson Transcripts [#4 of 15]

On the night of August 14, CBI agent Greg Zentner was dispatched to Boulder to interview the most crucial witness in the Watts case. The transcript below is an excerpt from a 72 page document spanning 3223 lines of text.

CrimeRocket is the first to reproduce and analyze this critical transcript in-depth. The entire transcript has been broken down into 15 sections.

The fourth part includes:

  • Nickole’s concerns and suspicions when Watts arrives and immediately ducks into the garage
  • Watts strange entry into the house

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The audio for the above transcript is available here.

The fifth part deals with Nickole’s impressions inside the house/crime scene in more detail.

Why did a very bad liar think he was a good one? Chris Watts and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

At 02:57 in the clip below, right at the beginning of the interview that preceded the polygraph, Colorado Bureau of Investigation Agent Tammy Lee tells Chris Watts:

“You know if you did have something to do with their disappearance, it would be really stupid for you to come in and take a polygraph. [Laughs]. It would be really dumb.”

And so Chris Watts takes the polygraph, fails, and then goes on to confess largely because of the failed test.

There’s no doubt stupidity does play into the criminal psychology [and psychopathy] here, just as it did in the Scott Peterson case. And probably, elements of vanity and narcissism exacerbate [or inflate] this self-perceived sense of mastery [over others and one’s world].

But there has to be another aspect that accounts for the incredible poor levels of intuition going on here. Does being dumb lead to poor perception skills, or do poor perception skills drive dumbness?

Here’s a clue, and it’s one than can impact all of us.

What the Dunning Kruger effect suggests is the less we know, the more we think we know and tend to over-estimate our chances. On the other hand, the more we know, the more modest we tend to be about what we think we know.

In a criminal case, a criminal – like Chris Watts or Scott Peterson – may believe they know a great deal more about their crime than anyone else. Further, especially if there is premeditation and an extensive and elaborate effort to dispose of evidence [and the human remains], this sense of overconfidence is likely to be exaggerated.

It helps, in these circumstances, for the cops to play dumb, and to not reveal what they know. In both the Chris Watts and Scott Peterson cases, the cops knew about the affairs some time before the criminals knew that the cops knew.

But there’s another dimension to the criminal psychology that goes beyond all of this. It’s like the coldness of a psychopath but it’s not quite the same thing. Any person can become numb or unfeeling to someone else after a season of lying, duplicity and deceit. This behavior creates disconnection, and the murder is the final leg of that journey. It’s the final disconnect. In order to get to that place, the murderer becomes “standoffish” not only towards his intended victim, but to many others [close to the victim] as well.

In effect, the murderer is preparing himself for what would otherwise be a somewhat traumatic event. Murder can be traumatic. But if the murderer is sufficiently imbued with a sense of self, and a disconnected sense of self, then it’s less difficult. Of course, following the murder, this disconnectedness is what the world sees and sees immediately something is very wrong [because this person close to the victim doesn’t show the right emotion – because he’s disconnected himself…]

At 13:30 in the clip below, Forensic Psychologist Dr. Keith Ablow describes the mental process behind Scott Peterson’s less than credible acting.

ABLOW: I think Scott Peterson knows he is putting things over on people, or attempting to. The trouble is, because he can’t connect – he can’t feel your emotions, or his own [in terms of Laci] – he’s in a very tough spot as to lying effectively. But Scott Peterson thinks he’s very resourceful. No doubt he thinks people believe him when they don’t at all. 

The Atkinson Transcripts [#3 of 15]

On the night of August 14, CBI agent Greg Zentner was dispatched to Boulder to interview the most crucial witness in the Watts case. The transcript below is an excerpt from a 72 page document spanning 3223 lines of text.

CrimeRocket is the first to reproduce and analyze this critical transcript in-depth. The entire transcript has been broken down into 15 sections.

The third part includes:

  • Details of Nickole’s calls to Watts, Sandi and the cops
  • Watts arrival at the scenefullscreen capture 20181205 072436

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The audio for the above transcript is available here.

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Mark Lehrer’s Interview with Nichol Kessinger on August 15, 2018 [48th Tranche]

The media reporting and the Discovery Documents are a little slippery when it comes to specificity about when exactly Kessinger contacted the cops [or who contacted whom first], and the precise time this happened.

It appears the first time Kessinger spoke to law enforcement was on August 15, the same day Watts confessed. It’s possible that Kessinger was contacted by phone first [prior to the discussion below on August 15], or that Kessinger herself contacted the cops by phone.

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Although this interview was recorded, and despite many YouTube clips claiming to the be the “first interview” with Kessinger, her meeting with the FBI’s Mark Lehrer was her first one-on-one interview with law enforcement. Below is the audio of that first interview. Give it until 3:28 before the static “settles down”.

https://youtu.be/6rnh4yKIn8M

 

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The Atkinson Transcripts [#2 of 15]

On the night of August 14, CBI agent Greg Zentner was dispatched to Boulder to interview the most crucial witness in the Watts case. The transcript below is an excerpt from a 72 page document spanning 3223 lines of text.

CrimeRocket is the first to reproduce and analyze this critical transcript in-depth. The entire transcript has been broken down into 15 sections.

The second part includes:

  • Confirmation that their flight was supposed to land at 23:25. It arrived instead at 12:45.
  • Shan’ann’s neck was really bothering her [this may have been why she felt out of sorts].
  • According to Nickole the doctor’s appointment was at 09:00.
  • Shan’ann expected get three hours sleep on Monday, from 02:00 until 05:00 [05:00 was the time Ceecee woke up].
  • Chris Watts first version of how the girls and Shan’ann had left the house was to Nickole, telling her “a friend must have picked them up or something…”
  • Nickole called Watts three times before he answered at approximately 12:27.
  • According to Nickole, Deeter had been “caged”, something they usually did when everyone left the house.

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The audio for the above transcript is available here.

The third part includes Nickole’s explanation for why she called the cops when she did.

fullscreen capture 20181201 144508The Atkinson Transcripts [#1 of 15]

QUIZ: Want to Win Book 5 in the TWO FACE Series? See how many of these 10 Questions you can Answer Correctly

The fifth book in the TWO FACE series is the most voluminous and in-depth yet. With each successive narrative we not only get to know all the characters and players more thoroughly, we’re also able to sketch and color the context of the crime in increasingly vivid detail.

5 months after the murders, and despite unrelenting and focused research, we’re still in the process of getting to know the criminal psychology of Watts himself. Although our understanding is definitely more intimate today than it was before Christmas, to feel our way to the real people, real motives and real circumstances of this unique case has clearly taken time and effort, and though we’ve made substantial progress, we’re not quite there yet.

True crime research is strange. With more information new questions and possibilities arise. Inevitably the basic arc of what we know [and the why] shifts perceptibly forward, but frustratingly, some simple answers remain frustratingly out of reach.

Please note if you wish to stand in the running to win the 5th book please begin your comment with: #Kindle. If you have never read a Kindle book, don’t have an Amazon account or don’t know how to download or read a book on Kindle, please don’t use #Kindle in your comment because you won’t be able to claim/download/read the book.

For more on this read “Why are your books only available on Kindle – and how do I get one?”

Some of the questions asked and answered [and in some exceptional cases not answered] in DRILLING FOR DISCOVERY include the following:

1. Why did Nickole Atkinson go to 2825 Saratoga Trail in the first place on Monday morning? There are two reasons to this answer, one of them obvious, but the other is not very well known.

2. What shoes did Shan’ann Watts wear on the airplane? Motivate your answer.

3. Name three locations for the girls’ shoes that appeared out of place on August 13.

4. When was the first time Watts was asked whether he [or Shan’ann] was having an affair, and who asked him?

5. When did law enforcement become aware that Watts was likely having an affair with a co-worker?

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6.  When did Nichol Kessinger speak to the cops for the first time?

7. Who found Shan’ann’s purse, when and where was it?

8. The colored object on the left hand side in the drawer beside the bed in the master bedroom, is it a kid’s toy or anal beads?

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9. When Watts was asked to suggest various ways of making someone disappear, which answer tied in directly with the way/circumstances surrounding how this crime was committed?

10. The District Attorney believes the children were smothered. Were they? Did Chris Watts confess to smothering his children?

The degree of difficulty for these questions is tougher than for the last quiz. The winner will be selected on Sunday 27. Only one comment per user is allowed.

TWO FACE DRILLING THROUGH DISCOVERY will be available before the end of January.

b

The Atkinson Transcripts [#1 of 15]

On the night of August 14, CBI agent Greg Zentner was dispatched to Boulder to interview the most crucial witness in the Watts case. The transcript below is an excerpt from a 72 page document spanning 3223 lines of text.

CrimeRocket is the first to reproduce and analyze this critical transcript in-depth. The entire transcript has been broken down into 15 sections.

The first part includes:

  • Shan’ann waiting outside the house on the porch for Nickole to pick her up [so as not to wake the children]
  • Nickole’s concern and suspicion around Shan’ann’s purse
  • Nickole’s first text to Shan’ann on Monday August 13 was at 08:43 and again at 08:55.

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The audio for the above transcript is available here.

The second part includes Nickole’s reason for going to the house in the first place.

fullscreen capture 20190110 020045fullscreen capture 20190110 020048fullscreen capture 20190110 020052The Atkinson Transcripts [#2 of 15]

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